- Spectrum Markets’ SERIX® sentiment shows a bullish trend for both Bitcoin and Ether, coinciding with price increases (BTC 59.728,2 EUR1; ETH 2.986,32 EUR2)
- Endorsements from political figures such as Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., along with decisions by the Russian government, have boosted Bitcoin demand
- Ether’s rising demand is driven by increased institutional interest, including ETF launches and the European Investment Bank’s (EIB) Ether-based bond issuance.
Spectrum Markets (“Spectrum”), the pan-European trading venue designed for retail investors, has published its SERIX® sentiment data for European retail investors for July, revealing a bullish trend for both cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ether. The SERIX® value for Bitcoin remained stable at a high level with 107 points (down from 108 on June), while the value for Ether increased from 110 to 113 points.
The SERIX® value indicates retail investor sentiment, with a number above 100 marking bullish sentiment, and a number below 100 indicating bearish sentiment. (See below for more information on the methodology).
Market opinion
“The bullish trading behaviour, alongside rising prices in July – appears to be backed by recent statements from the U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump, who promised to transform the United States into a ‘global crypto currency capital and bitcoin superpower’ with prospects of Bitcoin-friendly regulations if elected. Trump announced plans to stop selling confiscated Bitcoin stocks and establish a ‘strategic Bitcoin reserve’. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. went even further, advocating for the daily purchase of 550 Bitcoins by the U.S. government to fund a substantial Bitcoin reserve. Additionally, the Russian government’s legalisation of Bitcoin for export trade payments to counteract Western sanctions has likely been seen by retail investors worldwide as a strong signal, potentially fueling demand. However, the abrupt drop in price of Bitcoin and Ether in early August, took many investors by surprise, highlighting once again the dynamic and unpredictable nature of the cryptocurrency market”, says Michael Hall, Head of Distribution at Spectrum Markets.
“In terms of Ether, the bullish sentiment may be driven by the approval of nine Ether ETFs, which began trading on July 23rd. The European Investment Bank’s (EIB) issuance of its first digital bond also contributed as another factor. Despite Bitcoin's advancements, many investors tend to favour Ether due to technological improvements such as ‘staking,’ which allows for dividend payments. Ether is increasingly significant in decentralised finance and Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs), lowering the barrier for gaming and social media applications. So, at the end there is a strong supportive story also for Ether”, Hall concludes.
Spectrum’s July data
In July 2024, order book turnover on Spectrum was €240.3 million, with 36.3% of trades taking place outside of traditional hours (i.e., between 17:30 and 9:00 CET).
The order book turnover was distributed among various underlying assets as follows: 77.2% on indices, 3.6% on currency pairs, 8.7% on commodities, 7.7% on equities and 2.8% on cryptocurrencies. The top three traded underlying markets were NASDAQ 100 (29.4%), DAX 40 (25.1%), and DOW 30 (12%).
Looking at the SERIX® data for the top three underlying markets, the DAX 40 dropped from a bullish sentiment to a neutral 100, while the NASDAQ 100 increased from a bearish 99 to a neutral 100 as well DOW 30 remained bearish at 96.
Calculating SERIX® data
The Spectrum European Retail Investor Index (SERIX®), uses the trading venue’s pan-European trading data to shed light on investor sentiment towards current development in financial markets.
The index is calculated on a monthly basis by analysing retail investor trades placed and subtracting the proportion of bearish trades from the proportion of bullish trades, to give a single figure (rebased at 100) that indicates the strength and direction of sentiment:
SERIX® = (% bullish trades - % bearish trades) + 100
Trades where long instruments are bought and trades where short instruments are sold are both considered bullish trades, while trades where long instruments are sold and trades where short instruments are bought are considered bearish trades. Trades that are matched by retail clients are disregarded. (For a detailed methodology and examples, please visit this link).
About Spectrum Markets
Spectrum Markets is a pan-European trading venue for financial instruments aimed at financial institutions and their retail investors. Headquartered in Frankfurt am Main, Germany, and with presence across Europe, Spectrum Markets was designed for transparency, integration and openness while enabling unparalleled access to the markets beyond traditional trading hours with 24/5 on-venue trading for the first time in Europe.
Since launch in August 2019, financial instruments listed on Spectrum Markets have been made available for retail trading in Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands, Ireland and Finland.
Acting as a MiFID II regulated trading venue authorised and supervised by BaFin, Spectrum Markets uses a uniquely open architecture, allowing intermediaries and product providers to offer to retail investors a unique trading experience with increased choice, control and stability.
Being an MTF (Multilateral Trading Facility), Spectrum Markets provides access to innovative products designed to give European retail traders flexibility and control over their trades. This includes Turbo24, the world’s first 24-hour turbo warrant.
Through the pan-European ISIN, 24/5 trading services, intraday issuance and a fully proprietary venue, Spectrum Markets enables a guaranteed baseline level of liquidity over a range of products, is able to swiftly and safely match a significant number of orders, and to process messages with a low latency.
Spectrum Markets publishes SERIX® – the Spectrum European Retail Investor Index – a pan-European client sentiment that informs as to whether retail investors have taken exposure on a bullish or bearish view on a specific underlying. SERIX® is a measure based on trades made by retail investors across Europe which can be used to compare how sentiment has changed (in terms of directionality or strength of sentiment) over time on a monthly basis.
Spectrum Markets is a wholly owned subsidiary of IG Group (LSEG: IGG).
Further information can be found at spectrum-markets.com.
Media Contact
Liminal
T: +44 203 778 1103
E-Mail: vasiliki@liminalcomms.com
Disclaimer
All information contained herein is for information purposes only and addresses exclusively Members of Spectrum Markets and persons interested in becoming a Member of Spectrum Markets. Nothing herein constitutes an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any financial instrument(s) listed on Spectrum Markets or any product described herein. Spectrum Markets does not provide financial services, such as investment advice or investment brokering. Prospective retail investors can trade such products only with their brokers. The information herein does not constitute investment advice or an investment recommendation. Any information provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it.
1 Source: it.investing.com
2 Source: it.investing.com
